By Vicky Boyd
Ag Alert
California Farm Bureau Federation
The 2024 summer heat wave and this spring’s inclement pollination weather likely conspired to reduce the state’s cherry crop, prompting the San Joaquin County agricultural commissioner to request a disaster declaration.
Despite the significantly lighter crop, many growers said they still had good-sized fruit with excellent eating quality, and market prices were strong.
“The fruit I had, I wished I had more of,” said Donald Drake, who farms cherries with his brother, Dennis, near Linden. He estimated yields were off about 50%.
May 27 FOB shipping point prices for 16-pound cartons of bagged cherries ranged from $40 for the smallest-sized fruit up to $85.90 for the largest, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service in Fresno. This compares to year-ago prices ranging from $16.90 to $55.90.
Based on grower and packer surveys, San Joaquin County Agricultural Commissioner Kamal Bagri estimated the county’s 2025 cherry crop was about 43% less than the five-year average and amounted to about a $100 million loss. She blamed prolonged rain and heat exceeding 80 degrees during this season’s pollination for the reduced crop.
Her estimate met the 30% crop-reduction threshold needed to submit a disaster declaration request to the state. USDA makes the final determination.
A crop disaster declaration would make available low-interest USDA emergency loans for San Joaquin County cherry producers and those in counties abutting the disaster-designated county.
Agricultural commissioners in Kern, Tulare and Fresno counties did not conduct similar surveys. Based on conversations with district staff, Fresno County Assistant Agricultural Commissioner Mario Reeves said some cherry growers reported poor production. But the causes ranged from not enough chill hours to fruit damage from recent rains, early frost during bloom and last summer’s heat wave.
“It’s really all over the board,” he said, adding there needs to be an “attributable event” to submit a disaster designation request.
Early industry estimates pegged the 2025 crop at 6 million to 8 million 18-pound box equivalents. But that has since dropped to between 4 million and 4.5 million.
Last year, the initial estimate was 10.2 million boxes, and the industry ended up shipping more than 9.4 million boxes. Of that, the Stockton-Lodi-Linden district accounted for 57.5% of production, with the central San Joaquin Valley responsible for 39%, according to California Cherry Board figures.
This year’s crop also followed the old adage that a smaller estimate tends to shrink as the season goes on, said Brianna Shales, marketing director for Washington-based Stemilt Growers, which owns Chinchiolo Stemilt in Stockton.
“We kind of knew when harvest started that it was not a full crop,” she said.
With hopes for a smooth transition between the California and Pacific Northwest seasons in early June, Shales said the later region’s estimated large cherry crop should meet pent-up demand. Cherry growers from five Pacific Northwestern states met in May and developed a crop forecast of 213,800 tons—or 21.38 million 20-pound box equivalents, according to the Washington State Fruit Commission. That’s up 2 million boxes from 2024.
Drew Cheney, operations manager for Machado Family Farms, said he was pleased with the fruit set in his 4-acre U-pick orchard near Linden.
But at a larger commercial block only a few miles away, Cheney said the crop was much lighter, even though that orchard had the same varieties and was on the same rootstock as the U-pick.
He pointed to July temperatures last year that reached above 100 degrees for more than two weeks as the likely culprit for the reduced fruit set. The prolonged heat stressed the trees when they were forming fruiting buds for the 2025 crop and caused them to go into survival mode.
Poor pollination also may have been a factor, he said, as many beekeepers struggled with hive health last winter, leaving many colonies weaker than normal. In addition, sporadic rain and winds this spring wasn’t ideal for bee flights, he said.
Jim Ferrari, who farms with sons Joe and Nick near Linden, estimated his crop was off 50% to 60% from the past few years.
Like Machado, he said yields varied between and within orchards. In one block, Ferrari said he’d be hard pressed to pick a box of cherries from each row.
“The trees look healthy, but there’s nothing there,” he said.
The fruit on his early varieties sized nicely and was of export quality. But Ferrari said his late-season Bings had splits, spurs and other defects. While the trees did set some fruit, he said the pack-out wasn’t there.
In addition to the reduced production, he said bird damage has been dramatically higher.
“There are fewer cherries, so it hurts more,” he said.
Birds aren’t the only ones stealing cherries this season. The San Joaquin County Sheriff’s Department arrested three people east of Stockton with more than $2,000 worth of cherries, according to a department Facebook post. Deputies also found ledgers tying the alleged suspects to a string of similar thefts in other counties, and they continue to investigate what appears to be a well-organized produce ring.
Ken Vogel, who farms near Linden, estimated his cherry crop was off by about 50%. The crop insurance adjuster didn’t find enough cosmetic damage to his early-season Coral Champagne cherries to prevent picking. His preliminary packing reports showed an 85% pack-out.
“The quality is pretty good. It’s just a light crop,” Vogel said.
His late-season Bing cherries won’t ripen until early June. Vogel said he must wait for the final packinghouse reports to see if crop losses meet crop insurance coverage thresholds.
In talking to his pest control adviser, Vogel said the July 2024 heat may have been a contributor. Looking back, he said he wondered if he could have irrigated more during what is typically considered a maintenance portion of the season.
Vicky Boyd is a reporter in Modesto. She can be reached at agalert@cfbf.com.
