Farm labor scarcity is a growing challenge for farmers, particularly in light of the Trump administration’s goals for mass deportations. 

A new report from the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics suggests that labor shortages may prompt some California farmers to alter their production and labor management practices by raising wages, changing cultivation practices, implementing labor-saving technologies and using farm labor contractors. 

If immigration enforcement targets undocumented farmworkers, California farmers are expected to adopt similar strategies, the report said.

Using results from a survey sent to more than 1,000 California Farm Bureau members in 2019, the report looks at how farmers might adapt if there are widespread deportations in California’s farming sector. 

The UC economists analyzed how California farmers have already adjusted to labor shortages and rising costs to highlight the likely effects of removing undocumented farmworkers from California.

Responses came from 671 farmers in 37 counties who completed the entire survey. Crops include winegrapes, tree nuts, citrus fruits, vegetables, avocados and nursery or floral products. The survey collected information on farmers’ experiences with labor shortages and production and labor management practices between 2014 and 2018.

During the sample period, the percentage of farmers who experienced some degree of labor shortage nearly tripled—from 14% in 2014 to 40% in 2018.

The results show that farmers who face labor shortages in the current growing season were 21% more likely to raise wages. Those who were short on labor were 9% more likely to change cultivation practices relative to those who were able to hire as many workers as they desired, and they were 3% more likely to use farm labor contractors. 

The report indicates the effects persisted into the following year. Farmers who experienced labor shortages in the previous season were 9% more likely to raise wages, 5% more likely to adopt labor-saving technologies, 5% more likely to change cultivation practices and 4% more likely to hire farm labor contractors. 

For farmers who produce labor-intensive crops without mechanical harvest options, the study found the effects of labor shortages were generally larger. Labor shortages in the current year were associated with a 28% increase in the probability of increasing wages, a 9% increase in changing cultivation practices and a 9% increase in the likelihood of adopting labor-saving technologies.

When labor shortages occurred in the previous growing season, farmers with labor-intensive crops were 10% more likely to raise wages and 7% more likely to change cultivation practices in the current season, survey results showed.

The report said many farmers warned that their capacity to raise wages is limited, with 30% of those surveyed saying they delayed or reduced harvest in response to labor shortages. This could have significant implications for production and farm income, as agricultural activities are highly time sensitive, the report said.

Mechanization is another common strategy growers who face labor constraints adopt. However, recent economic analyses suggest that many available technologies such as robotic fruit harvesters are not a perfect substitute for hand labor, study authors pointed out. 

Survey responses suggest the need for strategies to ensure an alternative to hand labor or a stable labor supply. One option is the development of labor-saving technologies. Expanding incentives for research, development and adoption of mechanized agricultural practices could help ease labor pressures while maintaining productivity, the report said. 

Tax credits, subsidies and financial assistance could help farmers, particularly smaller operations, invest in these innovations, the UC economists added. However, technological solutions take time to develop and are unlikely to fully offset the immediate impacts of labor shortages, particularly for highly perishable and labor-intensive crops, they pointed out.

Alternatively, policies could aim to secure a stable and legal workforce via the H-2A program, which allows farmers who anticipate labor shortages to be certified and employ legal guest workers, the UC economists suggested. The H-2A program has so far been used primarily by vegetable and strawberry farms in California’s coastal counties, reflecting the complexity of regulations and the need to provide H-2A workers with housing at no cost, they pointed out. 

To make the program easier and less expensive for other farmers, the H-2A program could be modernized by streamlining application procedures, expanding  eligibility to include year-round positions and easing barriers such as the requirement that employers provide housing, the report said.

Any rapid reduction in the undocumented farm workforce could leave many growers unable to adapt quickly, leading to significant disruptions in production, the study found. Such a scenario could lead to reduced production of labor-intensive crops, further consolidation of fruit, vegetable and horticulture production among large-scale operations, increased costs for processing and distribution, and a rise in consumer prices, authors of the study said. 

Labor market disruptions resulting from deportations may reduce the domestic availability of fresh fruits and vegetables, increase dependence on imports, limit seasonal variety and constrain consumer choice, the authors added.

-          Courtesy of the California Farm Bureau