Gasoline prices across the Modesto region climbed this week, averaging $4.40 per gallon, up 4.3 cents from last week, according to a GasBuddy survey of 201 local stations. Prices are 58 cents higher than a month ago but remain 22.5 cents below this time last year, reflecting both seasonal fluctuations and broader market pressures.
The survey found the region’s lowest gas price yesterday was $3.97 per gallon, while the highest reached $5.19—a $1.22 gap. Across California, prices ranged from $3.49 to $8.29 per gallon, highlighting persistent disparities caused by local supply constraints, varying state taxes, and differences in regional fuel blends.
Nearby cities showed mixed trends: Stockton averaged $4.31 per gallon, down slightly from last week; Oakland rose to $4.65, up 5.2 cents; and San Jose held steady at $4.58. Drivers in the Modesto region are now paying prices similar to those in other Central Valley cities, though still below the higher averages seen in the San Francisco Bay Area.
On the national front, gasoline prices have generally stayed below $3 per gallon in much of the country this year, with AAA reporting a U.S. average around $2.94 per gallon as of Feb. 23 — down from more than $3.10 a year ago. Analysts cite strong crude production, robust refinery output, and weaker seasonal demand as factors helping to contain nationwide prices. Still, prices can spike when seasonal fuel blends change, refinery maintenance occurs, or geopolitical events drive crude costs higher. Forecasts suggest the national average could briefly touch the low $3 range during spring travel before declining later in 2026, potentially marking the lowest annual average since 2020.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, attributed the Modesto region price increases to both global and local factors. “Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a broader exchange that could threaten supply flows,” he said, citing tensions between the United States and Iran, planned refinery maintenance, and pipeline disruptions. “Seasonal supply constraints, coupled with localized outages, could keep regional prices elevated even if the national average dips temporarily.”
Historical data shows gas prices in the Modesto region have fluctuated over the past five years: $3.37 in 2021, $4.52 in 2022, $4.33 in 2023, $4.30 in 2024, and $4.62 in 2025. Analysts note that regional price swings often outpace national averages due to local factors such as refinery proximity, transportation costs, and competition among stations.
