With roughly 32,000 ballots still left to be processed in Stanislaus County, several key primary races remained unsettled Friday — but the contest for the District 4 state Senate seat appeared increasingly out of reach for incumbent Sen. Marie Alvarado‑Gil, according to the latest results available as of June 5.
The Stanislaus County Clerk‑Recorder’s Office reported that 69,158 ballots had been counted so far, representing about 23% of registered voters. By law, counties cannot complete their canvass before June 26, and properly postmarked mail‑in ballots may continue arriving through June 9.
Nearly all of the county’s estimated 32,000 unprocessed ballots arrived on Election Day or in the mail afterward, officials said.
Updated totals showed Democrat Jaron Brandon widening his lead with 75,349 votes, or 40.2%. Republican Alexandra Duarte remained in second with 60,521 votes, or 32.3%. Alvarado‑Gil trailed with 51,569 votes, or 27.5% — nearly 9,000 votes behind Duarte.
A comeback appears unlikely. Political consultant Mike Lynch, who has worked on campaigns for more than four decades, said the math simply isn’t there.
“The margin is not going to narrow enough to make a difference,” Lynch said. “They’re not catchable.”
Using the 2022 primary as a comparison — a similar midterm‑style election year — Alvarado‑Gil would need to capture roughly 80% of the remaining ballots to overtake Duarte, more than triple her current pace.
The senator did not respond to requests for comment Friday, but a post on her personal Facebook page on election night suggested she was preparing for the race to end.
“Like you, I have seen the unofficial election results tonight and believe that in the morning God will reveal His next plan for me,” she wrote. “We have fought together, we have prayed together, and we will move forward together.”
The campaign was marked by sharp attacks, including a widely criticized mailer from Duarte’s campaign depicting her firing a gun toward an image of Alvarado‑Gil — a tactic condemned by several GOP county committees. Lynch said he expects Duarte to moderate her messaging heading into November.
Alvarado‑Gil also faced controversies during her term, including a public dispute with Stanislaus County Supervisor Channce Condit over infrastructure funding, a sexual‑harassment allegation from her former chief of staff, and a mid‑term party switch.
District 4, the largest Senate district in California by land area, leans Republican and supported Donald Trump by double digits in 2024 — a dynamic that could benefit Duarte in the general election. Still, Lynch said Brandon, a Tuolumne County supervisor, ran a strong primary campaign.
“But he’s got a mountain to climb,” Lynch said.
Brandon performed even better in Stanislaus County alone, earning 45.1% of the vote to Duarte’s 36.5% and Alvarado‑Gil’s 18.5%.
Gray holds strong lead in congressional race
In the 13th Congressional District, Rep. Adam Gray continued to post a commanding lead, with nearly 42% of voters backing the Merced Democrat. Republican Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor, held 29%, followed by Republican businessman Vin Kruttiventi at 16% and Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez at 13%.
Lynch said Gray’s primary performance positions him well for November, though he noted that 2026 is shaping up to be an unusual election year with high‑profile statewide contests and a controversial ballot measure expected to drive turnout.
Soria, DuPont advance in Senate District 14
In Merced County Democrat Esmeralda Soria and Republican Darin DuPont appeared headed for a November runoff in the State Senate District 14 race. As of Friday, Soria held 43.9% of the vote, while DuPont had 43.1%. Democrat Esmeralda Hurtado trailed at 13%.
Superintendent race remains tight
The Merced County Superintendent of Schools race continued to show a close three‑way contest. Merced River Superintendent Richard Lopez remained in the lead, while Paula Heupel and Ana Boyenga were separated by just 263 votes — 27.97% to 28.94%, respectively — with 15,694 unprocessed ballots still left to count. Alberto Velarde held 10.50%.
Election officials will continue updating results as ballots are verified and tallied. Voters should confirm the latest numbers through their county elections offices.
The Merced Focus and the Modesto Focus contributed to this story.
